Project personnel needs, workload demands and other requirements.
Trends that impact facilities can change over time, resulting in the need for facility expansion, reconfiguration, or consolidation. Demand planning predicts the impact of such trends on facilities by examining recent or anticipated changes in policies and procedures, workload, and/or personnel. Fentress analysts and statisticians have developed tools to forecast changes in demand, and our architects use these forecasts as a basis for determining the highest and best use of existing facilities. Following is a sample of the techniques we use for demand planning:
Forecasting and Time Series Analysis – Our statisticians use a variety of techniques to produce forecasts that support demand planning. We produce over 10,000 time series forecasts annually to predict workload and personnel demands on space needs.
Simulation Modeling – Simulation modeling is a useful tool for predicting “what if” scenarios. For example, if a law or policy changes, simulation modeling can be used to determine the potential impact of the change on resource needs. Fentress has used simulation models to analyze the throughput of justice systems to predict “downstream” resource requirements, personnel needs based on funding initiatives, and detention needs based on changing arrest and apprehension patterns. These changing needs impact the overall demand on space and facilities.
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) – Fentress uses GIS to analyze demographic, economic, workload, and other trends that impact facilities. GIS is a useful tool to perform both spatial analysis as well as to display results in a meaningful and visual fashion. Fentress has used GIS to analyze demographic and economic trends at the national, regional, state, and county level. We also use spatial regression to determine regional statistical patterns in trends and perform hotspot analyses to identify emerging trends.
Our models and methods successfully quantify the relationships between mission, workload, and personnel needs in a way that show the impact on facilities. The ability to predict demand on facilities is a key component to strategically plan for future project needs.